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Monitor Financial Warning Signs

By August 17, 2026August 20th, 2026No Comments

If a restaurant operator spends the first five days of the month reliving the past one, they are looking in the rearview mirror instead of looking out for the windshield and driving the business in the direction it should be moving in that week/month, not afterward.

“Easier said, month-end is month-end,” Johnessa Hardyman, VP of Finance at Morrissey Hospitality in St. Paul, MN, told Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine. “We’re back to waiting for a preliminary income statement and month-end inventory to appear. If you are monitoring sales and labor daily and using a declining balance, you should be able to predict your Gross Operating Product (GOP) or Net Operating Income (NOI) within three to four percent before these reports are issued.” 

Pay Attention to Primes

On an ongoing basis, operators must pay close attention to their primes, which consist of labor and cost of goods, she said. If you can achieve less than 70 percent per month, you are doing OK; every percentage under that, optimally in the low to mid-60s, means you are operating very efficiently.

The best tool for any operator is to use daily sales reports and labor reports. Both give you a snapshot of the week you are in and allow you to make real-time changes to adjust for peaks and valleys you experienced and anticipate in the coming days, said Hardyman. The second most valuable tool is using your budget and GL, as it lets you create declining balances for every line item and shift your resources or spending based on where you anticipate the week and month will lead.  Think of it in simple terms, just like a checkbook, she suggested. 

Avoid Common Mistakes

Common mistakes operators make regarding financial management include waiting for a preliminary monthly income statement and purchasing, she said. Once that statement is released, there is nothing more you can do except check for errors, which experience says are usually not material, pore over inventory, and hopefully not take your first look at your General Ledger.  

“All of the time wasted explaining the previous month means you are not focused on the current week and month ahead.”

When it comes to purchasing, being fearful of having to “86” an item and overstocking items because you anticipate a surge in business or you are getting a deal on buying two cases when you only need six bottles creates waste and increases what is sitting on your shelves (inventory is cash) and is rarely worthy of depleting your monthly cash flow, Hardyman pointed out.

“If you have any bread in your freezer, you will know what I mean.  Bread wasn’t meant to be frozen.”

Uncovering Hidden Costs

If revenue is up, but profit is flat, operators  can play detective to uncover hidden costs or inefficiencies, she said. 

“Portion control, yields, and waste are your target areas when looking at your Cost of Goods.  As for payroll, your largest expense, a simple rule of thumb is that if your schedule for the week ends up being the exact same number of hours worked, it means you never adjusted up or down during the week based on revenue nor improved the productivity of every hour worked. It must be looked at and adjusted daily.”

The next step is more proactive, and that is the concept of flowthrough, Hardyman said. For every dollar in revenue that is above your budget or forecast, how much of it did you keep? A good target for flowthrough is to keep 50 to 60 percent minimum, and the opposite for flex is to spend less than 25 to 40 percent of the dollars you did not take in.

“Each dollar is a bonus, and the higher the percentage you bank, the more you are prepared for the weeks and months to come, when you might have to flex (revenue is down, and for each dollar you did not receive, how much did you not spend), which is inevitable.”

Manage Cash Flow

Determining the appropriate emergency funds for a restaurant operator depends on several key factors, Hardyman said. Much of this depends on your operation’s size, cash flow, and accessibility to either reserve funds or a line of credit, especially considering seasonal fluctuations in demand.  

Payroll is your number one obligation, and if you are fortunate, having the next two payrolls in reserve is optimal, she suggested. Keeping to the terms set by your vendors is the next most important item, as well as payment of sales tax and other associated federal, state, and local taxes. 

“There is no question that restaurant margins are very tight, which means active awareness and management of cash flow is paramount to balancing the tightrope of our industry, especially post-pandemic.  If you cannot pay your vendors for product nor your people to prepare and serve it, no amount of reserves can keep you afloat for long.  Having too many funds in reserves also means you are not reinvesting in your business.”  

Engage with Staff and Budget Wisely

Talk with staff  to get them on board for inputting cost-cutting measures, Hardyman said. 

“Solicit their ideas. They are your front line, and chances are good they will have great ideas as to the hidden costs and efficiencies mentioned above. Why waste time being a detective when you already have them?  This source of information is invaluable.” 

Developing effective short- and long-term budgeting strategies is essential when facing rising and unpredictable costs, she said.

“Know your market, understand your demographic, accept that in our industry customer spend is mostly discretionary, and do not create “blue sky” revenue to increase your GOP or NOI in your budget and never backload it in hopes you will sneak it over the finish line.”

Finally, do not take the previous year and assume you will do better by a large margin, Hardyman said, because you’re only setting yourself up for 12 miserable weeks explaining to your stakeholders why you didn’t achieve it. 

Referencehttps://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/monitor-financial-warning-signs/

Richard Dobransky

President & CEO

Richard joined Morrissey Hospitality as President in 2018 and accepted the role of CEO in 2023. Under Richard’s leadership, the organization implemented best-in-class solutions to support its hotel, restaurant, and events venue portfolio. He spearheaded efforts to upgrade all internal systems, embrace automated workflows and data analysis, and streamline every aspect of the organization for real-time, accurate reporting and accountability.

Focusing next on the employee experience, Richard oversaw a restructuring of employee compensation to ensure that every Morrissey employee earns more than a living wage. With his team, he improved employee benefits packages and ushered in numerous new initiatives to reflect the needs of employees and promote better work-life balance.

Under Richard’s leadership, the Morrissey portfolio has grown from 5 to 18 owned and managed properties. He oversees a team of over 100 managers and 1,000+ employees, leads efforts to provide authentic hospitality experiences at every location, and is an active coach and mentor to many.

Well respected and highly regarded throughout his career, Richard enjoys annual recognition in the Minnesota Top 100 and Top 500 Business Leaders list, and was named among Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal’s 2026 Most Admired CEOs. He serves on the Board of Directors for Visit Saint Paul and The Downtown Saint Paul Alliance.

Richard intrinsically understands the communities he serves, helping to create hospitality concepts that serve as long-lasting, meaningful gathering spaces. He aims each day to make, do, and be better for Morrissey customers, employees, clients, partners, vendors, and community members alike.

Elizabeth Morrissey

Senior Vice President

As Senior Vice President and Chief Growth Officer at Morrissey Hospitality, Elizabeth leads the company’s growth strategy with a focus on business development, strategic partnerships, and brand expansion. With nearly a decade of internal leadership experience and deep roots in hospitality, she drives new revenue opportunities, cultivates client relationships, and strengthens the company’s presence in new and existing markets.

Elizabeth began her career at The Saint Paul Hotel before taking on leadership roles at the Waldorf Astoria New York, Johnson Brothers Liquor Company, and Moet Hennessy. She returned to Morrissey Hospitality to help shape the company’s next chapter, progressing quickly from operations into business development. Her background spans hospitality operations, marketing, human resources, and sales strategy — making her uniquely positioned to scale the organization’s impact while preserving our guest-first, people-focused culture.

Elizabeth’s leadership is grounded in purposeful growth: building high-performing teams, elevating client brands, and delivering exceptional service across every property in the Morrissey Hospitality brand portfolio.

Paula Soderberg

Vice President of Human Resources

Paula is a results-driven professional with comprehensive and extensive human resources experience. She is well-versed in labor relations, employee relations, retention, training and development, HRIS, compensation and benefit management, domestic and international recruiting, job description development, HR audits, unemployment hearings, worker’s compensation claim management, and risk and safety management. She is also well versed in Def Leppard — so don’t mention the band unless you want her to talk your ear off.

Paula’s experience helps her foster an optimal working environment through development and deployment of new strategies in recruiting, onboarding, training, job description and standards, benefit administration, and employee development. She is a versatile and motivated leader, with proven communication and organizational skills. She is practical, articulate, and creative with a demonstrated ability to solve difficult issues.

Paula started in hospitality while a teenager at her family’s restaurant in Stillwater, MN. She continued to work FOH positions while in college pursuing her HR degree (don’t ever let her work BOH. She can’t cook…at all.) She understands operations, allowing her to support management and coach employees effectively. She also has held many HR management roles within healthcare, insurance, telecommunications, and government, but hospitality is her home.

Keith Reardon

Vice President

Keith is a hospitality management professional with 30+ years of experience leading food & beverage operations for hotels, restaurants, golf courses, and sports & entertainment facilities. His peers describe him as a high-capacity, intuitive, creative, thoughtful, and disciplined leader. With years of industry knowledge and experience in multifaceted hospitality environments, he routinely demonstrates strength in strategically building high-performance teams, resulting in stable revenues and profits.

Before joining Morrissey Hospitality, Keith held positions with Ritz Carlton Hotels in Palm Springs, before moving on to Centerplate, where he operated the Colorado Convention Center and opened Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Keith’s passion is restaurant and kitchen design and construction. He recently completed the design and construction of all the hospitality components at Morrissey’s newest location, Tattersall Distillery in River Falls, Wisconsin. Keith is active in the Twin Cities community, serving as Treasurer on the Executive Committee for the Hospitality Minnesota’s Educational Foundations Board, and as an advisor to Visit Saint Paul.

Johnessa Hardyman

Vice President of Finance

Johnessa has always had a passion for finance and accounting. She started her career in community banking and completed her bachelor’s degree in accounting before finding a passion for hospitality in 2012 at The Saint Paul Hotel. Johnessa spent two years working onsite at The Saint Paul Hotel before transitioning to the Morrissey Hospitality Shared Services Office.

Johnessa Hardyman brings over a decade of expertise in hospitality finance to her role as Vice President of Finance at Morrissey Hospitality. Since joining the company in 2012, she has held key leadership positions, including Senior Accountant, Controller, and Director of Financial Planning and Analysis. Johnessa’s extensive experience spans budgeting and forecasting, cash management, internal and external audits, system transitions, and acquisitions.

With a Master of Science in Accountancy from Saint Mary’s University, Johnessa excels at leveraging financial data to drive informed decision-making. She leads the accounting team with a focus on accuracy, efficiency, and strategic planning, ensuring that financial insights translate into actionable business strategies. Passionate about financial forecasting, she thrives on analyzing how businesses actualize their projections and the impact on cash flow. Her deep understanding of both finance and hospitality makes her an invaluable asset to the organization and its clients.

Amy Houston

Vice President of Marketing & Communications

A Professional Certified Marketer (PCM) with a deep passion for hospitality, Amy blends creativity with strategic vision to build meaningful connections between brands and guests. Her expertise in brand development, campaign execution, and revenue-focused marketing continues to shape Morrissey Hospitality’s growth and industry leadership. Known for her empathetic leadership style, she fosters collaboration and inspires those around her to think bigger and work together to bring bold ideas to life.

Amy Houston brings over 20 years of experience in marketing, hospitality, and sales. Since joining Morrissey in 2020, she has led strategy for 18 independent brands, driving measurable success through data-driven campaigns and innovative storytelling. Under her leadership, the company has transformed its marketing operations, bringing services in-house and streamlining digital platforms to create a more cohesive, results-driven approach.

Callie Kiepke

Vice President of Operations

Callie Kiepke is Vice President of Operations for Morrissey Hospitality, bringing more than a decade of leadership experience across event venues, restaurants, and golf course operations. Known for building strong teams and implementing effective, scalable processes, she plays a key role in driving consistent performance across the organization.

Callie began her hospitality career at 18 and earned a degree in Hospitality Management from the University of Wisconsin–Stout. After nearly ten years with TPC Twin Cities, she joined Morrissey Hospitality at Bunker Hills Event Center, where she advanced from Catering Sales Manager to Director of Catering and later General Manager. Under her leadership, Bunker Hills became one of the company’s top-performing properties.

In addition to her work at Bunker Hills and Kendall’s Tavern & Chophouse, Callie has supported operations at Stockyards Tavern & Chophouse, played a key role in the opening of Dawn Manor, and is instrumental in strengthening private dining operations. As Vice President of Operations, she leads menu development, systems strategy, and process standardization, with a focus on continuous improvement and exceptional guest experiences.

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